Job forecast: Uneven hiring ahead, with tech and experienced workers as bright spots
March 2026 continued the recent up-and-down pattern in the U.S. economy, with the addition of 178,000 jobs after a February loss of 92,000. The numbers reinforce a broader pattern of inconsistent month-to-month performance and a lack of sustained momentum in hiring.
A Q2 job forecast, published in a new report from professional services company Toptal, sheds more light on what may be coming next: declining job opportunities in the general market in Q2 2026, with technology jobs and certain white-collar roles emerging as potential bright spots.
Line graph showing global software engineering job roles starting to rebound in 2025, while overall job roles continue to decline. – Toptal
The new forecast focuses on three key sectors of the U.S. job market: all nonfarm jobs, all professional services jobs, and all technology jobs. Because Toptal’s talent network of 20,000 professionals is fully distributed and focused on experienced workers, the report also includes a more targeted forecast, focusing on remote and hybrid professional services and tech jobs that require five or more years of experience.
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All nonfarm jobs: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data shows that overall job growth has been declining by about 12% annually over the past few years, according to the report. The forecasting model suggests growth will continue to decline in Q2, but at a smaller magnitude than the BLS average.
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All professional services jobs: Roles across functions like marketing, accounting, legal, and customer operations have been following a similar path, with comparable 12% declines according to BLS data. Toptal’s forecast suggests that trajectory will likely continue through Q2.
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All technology jobs: After shrinking at an annual rate of about 22% for several years per BLS data, technology job growth is projected to be effectively flat in Q2, marking an important shift after several quarters of contraction.
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Remote and hybrid white-collar jobs: The most specific prediction targets remote and hybrid technology and professional services roles that require five or more years of experience. That forecast projects moderate job growth for Q2, compared to declines or flat trends for the other markets.
Line graph shows gradually increasing demand for experienced remote and hybrid tech and professional services workers since the market bottom in Q4 2023. – Toptal
AI is a central force shaping many of the trends in the current labor market, according to the report. Widespread adoption of AI is causing organizations to reevaluate business models and product strategies, creating higher demand for experienced talent in certain specializations, while more junior or generalist roles face declines.
What’s Driving the Forecast
The Toptal predictive model is based on current and historical data drawn from several sources: remote and hybrid job postings on We Work Remotely, BLS job posting data, Lightcast job posting data, and a set of key macroeconomic indicators that provide additional context on market conditions and momentum.
One such indicator is the U-6 unemployment rate, which captures underemployed workers and those who have stopped searching but still want a job. Unlike the typically reported U-3 unemployment rate, which counts only people who are unemployed and actively seeking work, many economists suggest the U-6 provides a better picture of the true labor market slack.
The model also factors in high-yield credit spreads, hiring rates, and inflation-adjusted GDP. Credit spreads act as a proxy for economic risk appetite, showing how much extra return investors demand to hold riskier corporate debt. Hiring rates track changes in total nonfarm hiring, with more than 20 years of historical data informing the model. And real GDP adjusts for inflation to give a clearer view of underlying economic growth.
The resulting signals are then cross-referenced with Toptal’s own client demand for remote and hybrid professionals. According to the report, remote and hybrid hiring is a reliable early indicator of future U.S. job market demand. That’s because companies often use distributed talent to move quickly or test new initiatives in the face of changing market conditions. When those efforts succeed, they tend to translate into longer-term hiring strategies.
The current labor market likely will remain highly dynamic, and while the model accounts for a wide range of variables, it can’t capture every factor that influences hiring outcomes. The report suggests that these findings should be viewed as directional and not definitive.
This story was produced by Toptal and reviewed and distributed by Stacker.
